Hello, everybody. In this video, we're going to talk about some predictions for the upcoming
August 2021 visa bulletin and predictions for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends
in September 2021. This is based on a recent YouTube Live that the State Department issued
with the chief of the visa control, Charlie Oppenheim, he had some good information to
share, which I will provide to you here and analyze it further. So what are you waiting
for? I'll see you on the other side. Hello, everybody. And welcome back to our immigration
channel. This is a place where you can get the most up-to-date immigration news, immigration
updates, and everything else that you need to make your immigration journey less stressful.
My name is Jacob Sapochnick. And I'm an immigration attorney based in San Diego, California, and
I help clients in all 50 states. In this video, we're going to talk about the visa bulletin
predictions for August and the months ahead, as we are coming close to the end of the fiscal
year, which will end in September 2021. Lots of good information that we can share. And
this is based on a live YouTube update that was released a couple of weeks ago, specifically
with the chief of the visa control unit, Charlie Oppenheim that is responsible for the visa
bulletin every single month. He is the one that controls exactly what's going to happen.
And we can learn a lot from his predictions. And most importantly, to help you plan your
next steps if you're planning to immigrate to the United States. So let's start with
the family-based categories, which I know is really important for a lot of people that
are watching my channel. As you know, most of the family-based green cards are processed
through the State Department, specifically through embassies and consulates abroad. And
as you know, because so many embassies and consulates are either completely closed, which
resulted in very few family-based cases that are being processed to completion. And this
is going to continue until the end of the year, unfortunately. While we do see some
movement in family-based petitions, it's not at the levels that we were all hoping to see.
At this time of the year, we are almost in the middle of July of 2021. The good news
is that in embassies and consulates where COVID-19 is generally under control, where
most of these officers are being vaccinated, and a lot of these consulates are starting
to reopen in those areas, we definitely see a better movement of processing family visas.
Now, Charlie was asked the following question, our family-based preference numbers are going
to continue to advance all the way through September? And this is what Charlie had to
say. Yes, the improving conditions have allowed
increased overseas processing. Therefore, the July dates were advanced at an accelerated
rate in most preferences in most countries. With the movement of the dates through September
might be somewhat more limited. The Mexico dates were advanced at a very fast pace for
the family categories. And that it was because number use in recent months has not been as
much as anticipated, but based on the previous movement and the dates. And we wanted to make
sure that we maximize number-use in the Philippine family dates were basically held with the
exception of the fourth preference because their previous movement of the final action
dates had generated sufficient numbers under the annual limits. So, therefore, we did not
need to continue moving any, except, as I said, the fourth preference.
So, as you can see, there has been some movement for, in some family categories. For example,
as he mentioned in Mexico, because they haven't used enough of these visa numbers in previous
months. There was definitely a movement in July. But for example, the Philippines because
there was sufficient movement in previous months. We didn't see too much moving forward
in this month. But overall, it will depend on how embassies and consulates will continue
to process these cases. But as far as the State Department is concerned, definitely,
the intention is to advance visas as much as they can throughout the end of the year.
The good news is that after analyzing all the data from the State Department's live
stream, it's clear to report that no retrogression is expected anytime soon, or in the foreseeable
future. And what I mean by visa retrogression is that sometimes where there are too many
visa applicants, but they're not enough visas available, that's when retrogression starts,
essentially, the visa priority dates are moving backwards. This is not expected anytime soon,
because there are sufficient visas for all the applicants who will be ready to receive
those visas, which is great news. Let's talk about some predictions for employment-based
care specifically EB2 and EB3. Charlie Oppenheim in the live stream specifically predicted
movement forward for EB2 and EB3 categories, both for India and China in the coming months.
What is unclear with respect to EB2 and EB3 is how fast those numbers are going to move
forward. One prediction was made is that EB3 category for India is going to move relatively
slowly for the rest of the fiscal year, all through September 2021. But the good news
is that after October 2021, which is when the new fiscal year starts, there's going
to be a rapid movement in all categories of EB2 and EB3 for India and China, and the rest
of the world. So these are definitely great news to expect after September. With respect
to EB5 China, which was definitely something that people were concerned about. Charlie
Oppenheim does not expect any movement forward until the rest of the year, the fiscal year
2021, which will end in September. Another interesting question that Charlie was asked
is, why doesn't the State Department provide estimated times before visas are actually
available. And this is what Charlie had to say.
In a normal processing year, I tried to provide such updates, about every three to five months.
And I put them in the visa bulletins with an item regarding visa availability. And that
usually covers what will happen in the next three to five months. It's very... like I
said earlier, it's important for people to remember that the applicants become qualified
at their own pace. And therefore, I can add some fluctuations in the dates, I really haven't
provided updates during the last part of fiscal 2020, or for fiscal 2021, because of a constantly
changing situation that is processing capability at both our overseas posts. And in the US,
USCIS offices.
As you can see, it's not always possible for the State Department to provide accurate estimates.
They do release them from time to time, and they're always available at the visa bulletin.
If you read it all the way through the end. Another question that was asked is why the
State Department will issue documents, will send an email requesting documents from candidates
that are not yet documentary qualified, their visas are not yet available. And what they
said is that they need typically 8 months to 10 months to get people prepared to be
documentarily qualified. So they want to start the process early to make sure they send their
documents, even if the priority dates are not current. And that's why you may be getting
an email from the State Department to start preparing and uploading your documents and
sending them information, even if your priority date is not yet current. So that is the reason
why they do that. And it was nice to hear that explanation from the State Department
directly. So hopefully that information was helpful. If you're here for the first time,
make sure to subscribe to our channel, click the notification bell so you don't miss any
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me a text, 619-483-4549, and request a consultation with me. Thank you for watching, and I'll
see you in the next video.