The Earth is a dying rock
and time is running out.
You only have 10 years
to plan your escape.
If we found out that
Earth only had 10 years left
before it was destroyed,
we'd need to figure out a plan
for humanity to survive.
And with a global population
of 7.8 billion people,
Our survival plan would have to be
as colossal as possible.
Today’s space shuttle technology can only
transport five to seven people into space
at a time.
This means we would need over
one billion shuttles to carry everyone off the planet.
That's not very feasible.
We'd need bigger spacecraft, and fast.
To design and build the spacecraft at breakneck speed,
we would all need to work together.
We'd need to set aside our wars and conflicts
to help make the plan succeed.
We'd need to bring the best
and brightest people to our new home,
including scientists, doctors, engineers
and maintenance crews.
"I try to do useful things."
Everyone would need to keep the ships
and future settlements up and running.
I'm imagining the selection process to go would be very strict.
So if you wanted to be one of those survivors,
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And now that you have more chances to be picked as a survivor,
you might want to know what comes next.
There would have to be intense screenings
to make sure that only healthy people relocate off Earth.
A single outbreak of disease could spell the end of humanity.
Now, it would be impossible to bring everyone.
We'd have to leave a lot of people on the dying rock.
But how many could we save?
Well, by some estimates,
we'd only need to save 98 people.
That would be enough for humanity to survive
and maintain a healthy population.
Other scientists argue we'd need at least 14,000 people.
OK, so let's round this up and say
we'll aim for evacuating 15,000 people.
Now, how do we choose them?
"I choose you."
It could come down to population sizes here on Earth.
For example, India could send 2,700 people to account for
their 17.7% of the global population,
while the U.S. could send 600
to match its 4.25% of the population.
Or would we choose people based solely on their skills and qualifications?
This would perpetuate many of today’s inequalities.
Who we choose would have huge impacts on humanity's cultures
and attitudes in the future.
To maintain all the cultures on Earth,
we would need to find ways to preserve them.
Now, let's get to technical side of things.
To carry 15,000 people to refuge in space,
we would need an enormous ship.
Or many smaller ones.
While constructing one ship might be most efficient,
there would be significant risk
if that ship became damaged or malfunctioned.
Two of the biggest challenges would be
figuring out how to build such a complex spacecraft and where.
"It will not be easy for you to hear."
You know building it in space could give us more freedom.
We could optimize the ship for space conditions
rather than engineering it to survive
the brutal trip from Earth.
And it could help if we transferred the raw materials to space
before beginning construction.
But that would take a while.
Currently, SpaceX rockets can carry
a maximum payload of 63,800 kg (140,660 lb).
And we'd need a lot more than that.
We would need to build our space vessel
to become self-sustaining.
Solar power would be the primary energy source.
After all, it’s free,
and the Sun will keep burning for billions of years.
But everything would need to be in perfect balance
to produce oxygen and water, grow food,
process waste and regulate the temperature and pressure.
But first, we would need to stock the ship with enough food
to keep everyone alive before we can start growing food in space.
To survive the first two years,
you alone would need up to 400 kg (880 lb) of food.
And that food would have to contain
all the carbs, fats, proteins
and fiber you'd need to stay healthy.
You'd also need 1,726 L (456 gal) of water per person.
Now, multiply those numbers by 15,000
to supply everyone onboard with enough food and water.
That would be a lot of water.
So our ship would use cutting-edge methods of recycling
to make a renewable water system.
But where would we go?
First, we'd establish a pit stop for deeper space exploration.
Luckily, by the time the evacuation began,
we'd already have one orbiting the Moon,
designed to resupply astronauts with food and oxygen.
Then we might head to Mars,
where we could orbit it for a while.
But we'd need to figure out how to get everyone down onto the red planet.
Could we accomplish all that in a mere 10 years?
Well, we already have the drive,
technology and financing to make civilian space travel possible in the near future.
But it would take much longer than 10 years to complete
such a global evacuation mission.
So maybe we should start getting ready now.
You know Mars looks like a good place to terraform.
But that’s a story for another WHAT IF.