India has the bad luck of having two antagonistic neighbors sitting right
on its borders. It also has the good luck of having the superior strategic position.
This is how India will fight World War 3.
India's geography makes it, like the United States, in effect a fortress nation. Unlike
the United States though, who is protected by two vast oceans and a polar ice cap,
India's fortress has one gap in its armor. To the north, India faces China- a nation
that it initially got along with very well. Both India and China spurred the non-aligned movement,
which sought to see their nations avoid being forced into either the American
or Soviet camp during the Cold War. However, tensions over an unsettled border dispute in
the north and China's drifting towards the Soviet Union soon frayed the relationship.
When China invaded Tibet and annexed it in 1950, relations hit an all-time low.
Since then China and India have had three major conflicts, with a full-blown war in 1962 which
China technically won. Two standoffs between Indian and Chinese troops occurred in 1967 and
1987, threatening to bring the two nations to war once more. However, in the new millenium
the relationship improved dramatically- until the 2010s, when a series of border disputes once more
threatened the tenuous peace. These disputes have grown in intensity, with the most serious
occuring in 2020 which left 20 Indian soldiers dead and an unknown number of Chinese dead. A
US congressional investigation found that China had planned in advance for the clash,
including for the possibility of fatalities. The fact that China once more achieved its
goals and pushed Indian control even further back in the region is proof that this was no accident.
To the west, India faces its long-time rival, Pakistan. The two nations have fought multiple
wars over the last 70 years, with India typically coming out victorious over its
smaller neighbor. However, Pakistan soon turned to directly funding and equipping terrorists to
attack India asymmetrically, with many terror attacks in India directly linked to Pakistan's
intelligence services. The two nuclear-armed nations remain at tenuous peace today,
but Pakistan's realigning towards China has ended India's policy of non-alignment.
Realizing it needs friends in this new and much more dangerous world,
India has made some very historic moves in drawing closer in ties to the United States.
Russia has traditionally been India's closest partner from the two powers, but significant
failures on Russia's part in developing joint weapon systems, such as the SU-57,
as well as its significantly reduced position on the world stage and Russia's own growing ties to
China is working to fracture that relationship. Now India is interested in potentially acquiring
more American weapons, and realigning itself closer to the US and its western allies.
India's northern border is thoroughly protected by the Himalayan mountains, which form a nearly
impenetrable border against any possible Chinese incursion. China, realizing very early on that it
sat on the low end of the strategic high ground, invaded Tibet to both prevent it
being used as a staging ground for a potential Indian invasion against it, and to secure the
headwaters of multiple rivers that are vitally important for the Chinese nation. Since then,
China has worked to push Indian control further and further back on its side of the Himalayas,
all in a bid to prevent India from having the opportunity to seize plateaus and establish
logistical bases from where it could fly in heavy equipment. While China has built its own,
India has not, which means India is wholly incapable of using heavy equipment in any
conflict against China. India's robust air defense capability though also means that while China
may have secured the high ground, a southern invasion of India is suicidally impossible.
India has little to fear from a ground war with China, though China's forward
position in the heights does mean that it will certainly lose what little control it has left
over the Himalayan region. India's biggest concern is its western border with Pakistan.
Pakistan has typically suffered great losses in its clashes with India over the years,
and today India is an exponentially more capable military power than Pakistan. A
modern conflict between the two nations would inevitably be to India's favor,
and with such overwhelming military power, could threaten the Pakistani national government itself.
This is why Pakistan has flat-out stated that it would be willing to use nuclear weapons to
defend itself in a future war, putting India in a very difficult position. To counter this threat,
or at least limit its effectiveness, India has developed a deep-strike doctrine,
wherein Indian forces concentrate power in a small area of the front to achieve a deep,
penetrating offensive into Pakistan itself. This would place Indian forces inside Pakistani
territory, and force it to use nuclear weapons on its own soil if it wishes to use them at all.
A bigger threat to India would be a conventional war between itself, China,
and inevitably Pakistan- with the basing of Chinese troops in Pakistan itself. With no fear
of invasion of its own territory, China is free to use its ground forces well outside of China,
and with the Chinese military on the whole superior to India's own, India would face
a significant threat if the two powers joined together for a major offensive. This is unlikely,
though not impossible, and would inevitably draw in other powers such as the US on India's side.
India's biggest problem is its lack of a native arms industry,
as well as the hodge-podge nature of its current military hardware. As an unaligned state,
India has been very opportunistic and chosen to arm itself with what it considered the weapons
that suited its needs best from both the west and the former Soviet Union, now Russia. However,
this has left it in the unique position of not having particularly deep defensive ties
to either of them- and is the reason why India today is not partner with any nation that fields
modern fifth generation fighters. If you're likely to deal with someone's potential rival,
nobody is going to invite you to share in their best hardware- except Russia
which was cash-strapped and turned to India to finance its SU-57. Unfortunately for both sides,
India pulled out of joint development when it was clear the SU-57 would never meet its
projected goals and would be far outclassed by American and even Chinese 5th generation fighters.
Without a native arms industry, India is naturally reliant on foreign suppliers-
which is tricky when those suppliers end up at each other's throats. Today India is taking
steps to attempt to kickstart a native defense industry, but it is waking up to the reality
that unless it picks a side- and fast- it's going to be left behind technologically. This is why
India has been slowly shaking off its non-aligned status and moving closer to the United States,
much to the chagrin of China. Famously, India's attempt to build a domestic tank- the Arjun-
was not only decades behind schedule, but ended up forcing the Indian government to
buy a small fleet of the tanks in 2013. By 2015 almost the entire fleet was inoperable.
India does not lack the intellectual capital or manufacturing capabilities, but it does
lack the expertise and highly specialized- and often classified- knowledge of renowned
global arms manufacturers such as Russia, France, Germany, and the United States. Modern weapons are
built on a foundation of decades of research and development, trial and experimentation, and direct
battlefield observations- all of which India lacks and can't simply be kickstarted overnight.
However, India has one significant strategic advantage over both Pakistan and China-
specially over China- and that's its navy. The Indian navy operates a fleet of mostly
modern ships, and is the second-most powerful in Asia. However, the Indian navy has one significant
advantage over China- it is fully capable of over-the-horizon, blue water operations,
meaning it can operate far from its own shores. This is a capability that China
struggles with due to its limited fleet logistics and lack of aircraft carriers.
Today India fields 2 aircraft carriers, 11 destroyers, 13 frigates, 1 ballistic
missile submarine for nuclear deterrence, and 16 conventional attack submarines. This allows India
to project significant power where it matters most- the Indian ocean. It's navy allows India
to effectively shut down Pakistan's coastal trade, but it's even more important for one key reason:
it allows India to hold a dagger to China's throat. With its navy able to project power deep
into the Indian ocean, India is able to almost completely shut down China's seaborne trade,
of which it is heavily reliant on for its oil and gas consumption as well as its economy. With two
aircraft carriers and multiple choke points in the Malacca straits and off Indonesia's waters,
the Indian navy can bring China's imports to almost a complete standstill.
China recognizes this, which is why it has been quickly working to develop its own aircraft
carriers. Inevitably, the balance of power will shift towards China with its ability to field a
much larger force and more modern weapons- but this is still decades away. Even then,
India enjoys one advantage China does not, and that's its growing relationship with
the United States. Many Indians favor continued non-alignment, preferring to keep India out of
the world's conflicts. However, this is no longer a possibility given China's rapid ascension and
expansionist ambitions. As the world's largest democracy, India poses an existential threat to
China's Communist Party, who is working to export its model of authoritarianism abroad in a bid
for self-survival. China has already helped many regional despotic powers with tracking
and surveillance technology for instance, in a bid to keep tabs on their citizenry.
China is also aiming to establish a global monopoly on technology itself. Every year China
poses a greater and greater threat to Taiwan, and while many Indians may consider this a domestic
dispute, the truth is far from it. Taiwan is not just a friendly democracy sitting off the
CCP's shores, but also the supplier of almost the world's entire demand for microelectronics. The
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or tsmc, supplies the world with nearly its entire
supply of modern microchips, absolutely integral for any economy. Its 5mm manufacturing process
produces the smallest, most advanced microchips in the world, without which modern weapons as well as
modern consumer electronics are impossible. If China were to take Taiwan, it would do
so along with its manufacturing and intellectual capabilities, leaving China with global hegemony
over the microchip supply, and holding it hostage to the CCP and its goals. Anyone who disagrees
with the Chinese Communist Party may simply face an export ban, crippling their economy.
This will give China incredible leverage over India that would take decades to
overcome. While tsmc is building a modern manufacturing facility in America to help
offset this massive strategic vulnerability, it is refusing to allow for construction of
its new 3 nanometer microchips anywhere outside of Taiwan. This is an insurance
policy to help ensure that the global community remains vested in Taiwan's
independence, but once more poses a significant vulnerability should China take Taiwan by force.
If India is going to continue to thrive in the 21st century, its days of non-aligment have to
end, otherwise it could find itself waging a losing World War 3 against technologically
superior opponents, or simply forced into submission by its regional rival, China.
Now go check out India vs China, Who Would Win- or click this other video instead.