A reminder that the newshour's
coverage of the war in Ukraine
is supported in partnership with
the pulitzer center.
With the war raging in eastern
Ukraine, there is a divide
between the war aims the Russian
high command in Moscow has
declared, and the reality of the
war on the ground.
Amna nawaz has that.
Amna: For more on the state of
the war in Ukraine we turn once
again to dmitri alperovitch.
He's co-founder of the Silverado
policy accelerator, a
washington-based think tank.
Welcome back to the newshour.
And for joining us.
Let's start with your assessment
of that Russian war effort on
the ground.
I spoke earlier with the
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
He said Russia is learning from
earlier missteps, they are
better at combining their air
and ground capabilities, but
their progress has been slow and
uneven.
What is your read on how they
are doing?
Dmitri: That is right.
The Russians have learned from
their mistakes and they are
shelling indiscriminately
Ukrainian positions, killing
many civilians in the process,
but they are still making little
progress because they are up
against well armed Ukrainians.
They are entrenched in their
defensive positions.
That is making it difficult for
the Russians.
Amna: Admiral Kirby mentioned
the role of conscripts in this
case, that they are being
inundated with propaganda back
home about how well the effort
is going and get on the ground
and find a different situation.
They say that is contributing to
Russia's lack of success.
Dmitri: The morale is very low.
The majority of the fighting
forces are getting paid,
contractors and the Russian
military, but we have seen
conscripts put into this fight.
The difference sometime is in
the name.
A lot of these conscripts are
forced into signing contracts
once they are trying to get out.
We see no one really wants to
fight in Ukraine.
They are making little progress
as a result.
Amna: What about the Ukrainian
response?
They are getting supplies of
heavier weaponry from the U.S.
And nato.
Admiral Kirby said they get it
in and the Ukrainians have to
figure out how to move it where
it needs to go.
Are they able to get that
weaponry to the places they need
it?
Dmitri: They are relying on
rail.
The Russians this week have
started to target rail
infrastructure and a number of
substations in western Ukraine
to shut down rail.
They only cost about two hours
of outage in some of these
locations.
The Ukrainians are still able to
resupply.
That is why you are seeing the
Russians make such a push in the
donbas before they have been
able to send all the
reinforcements into this fight,
which doctrine would dictate
they should.
As a result, they are rushing
because they want to cut off
supplies from coming into the
donbas region.
Amna: Tell me what is at stake
in the donbas and the mariupol
target that would give them a
crucial land bridge connecting
the territories they would
control.
What is at stake beyond the
military play?
Dmitri: At this point it is
prestige, the ability to say we
won this fight, although in the
initial objective of taking
Kyiv did not pan out.
They said we did not want that
anyway, this is of about -- this
is about protecting the donbas.
If they can take the old
boundaries that they created, if
they cannot say they have a land
border trick crimea, president
Putin can -- to crimea,
president Putin can claim
victory politically.
Even if they -- the black sea is
blockaded by the Russians.
That means all the forces the
Ukrainians have are not
functioning in the black sea.
Over 135 million tons a year
would go through those ports.
Now they are hoping to get about
one million tons a month through
the rail infrastructure down
into Poland and Romania.
Just about 1/10 of what they
actually need.
That is 40% of their gdp.
The Ukraine economy has been
starved to death by the
Russians.
Amna: Do you even know what
victory looks like for
Ukrainians at this point?
Dmitri: Oiously they have been
able to preserve their
government, but can they
preserve their economy?
That is the question.
They require $5 billion to $7
billion in aid a month.
The U.S. Is supporting them, but
can it go for decades?
They need to get their economy
up and running, their exports
back through the maritime ports.
If we can't break the blockade
that the Russians are
instituting in the plexi, -- the
black sea, it will be tough to
do.
Amna: Dmitri, thanks for your
time.
Dmitri: Thank you.