hello hello everybody it's 12 18 p.m Central Time on the 28th of November 2022 it is Monday here in
the United States and I've got an update for you first of all I almost sneezed into the microphone
so that's not really a good way to start out but that's okay we're not here to talk about me
or anything let's get a display capture turned on and just show you what's been going on now
first of all there's a lot of seismic activity to report here in Hawaii if you haven't heard Mauna
Loa is currently erupting and it was a pretty significant first start to the eruption and
I'm going to take you over to my YouTube page and show you for instance I made a video on it
it's already reached about 50 000 people which is a lot for this time frame for six hours for
my channel that is actually reaching a fair amount of people if you go over to the USGS
page right now it doesn't really look like much on during the daytime this is showing us where
the fishering is taking place now this is all fresh lava glowing still but the sunlight is of
course obscuring that the glowing can be seen in many other shots we can go back over and
let me show you for instance how this started right after Sunset a few hours after sunset for
Hawaii last night this is our thermal view so if you're not familiar with College of DuPage
or what we're looking at this is the view that we normally view wildfires on and look at that
it broke out and then started flowing down the north side of the volcano and that's where we
are now I can get it into a closer view if you guys would like just to see up close this red
splotches the current lava flow but here's where it started boom outbreak went across the Caldera
and a giant Fisher that was about a mile wide or a mile long I'm sorry and then here is the flow
starting to go out right before Sunrise out to the north side and here we are after Sunrise now
so it's going out on the north side of the volcano hence the update that I'm doing now
I said we'd get back on and address if a flow started happening and indeed a flow started
happening out the north side it's already gone down somewhat equal to the Mauna Loa Observatory
it has come out the top of the Caldera went over to this side the Northeast side and flowed right
over that lip of a few feet I want to say this is maybe just two or three feet at the most high
of a lip and really this is like a dome shape so this is a dome that goes at let's see 13.50
height 13 050 feet and then we go 48 47 46 45 44 and start going down in a slope where all of
this was then captured go back over to my YouTube Community page where I made posts throughout the
night going into this morning and this started to come off the top of the volcano now we have
to address that just several hours earlier we heard in the professional circles that there
was not going to be a flow that came out the top of the volcano and that it would stay inside of
the Caldera instead now what's happening is it's flowing down the north side where all the previous
flows previously went out this side of Mauna Loa and the good news is there's not much down here
it literally is just fields of old lava flows and a few Roads connecting to the observatory
now if there's people at the observatory I hope they have another way to get down off the mountain
aside from right here because the road looks like it just goes over to the e oh no right
no it looks like it just goes over to the East and that's where the lava flow is coming down now
now they have a tower there at this Observatory a giant tower that has cameras on top of it and
I think we might even be able to see what this place looks like so you can see this tower that
I'm talking about that obviously has cameras on it but I would think they probably have evacuated
out of here there's one Tower there's the one I'm talking about so I would think that those
are not just some weather stations up there that we actually have some cameras up on top of that
Tower at the observatory which should get a good view of it but it's not being provided
to the general public at this point I verified that I went over to their site to go check and
it's just pointing down at the parking lot so that being said we're relying on citizen journalists to
bring us the information and let me just take you over to Twitter for instance where this video has
been posted showing the flow right before sunrise and notice this was posted how many hours ago
okay so you know several hours ago this was coming out the top and flowing down the side while we
were really being told that there wasn't going to be a flow that came out the top and went down the
side like I said the good news is there's no one down here no subdivisions no nothing and then to
top it off on the good news it would have to be the biggest eruption ever to reach out down to
here which is of course the populated areas of Hilo and so forth and the old old lava flows and
these are ancient really I'll just call them you know thousands of years old maybe that it would
take again a huge eruption I think way bigger than this to reach all the way there so I you
know famous last words I better just knock on wood or something but I don't think it would
ever reach over to Hilo at this point the way the eruption's going on now unless something
way bigger takes place I think the 1984 eruption may have been bigger I'm not trying to downplay
this nobody got to me they're not telling me what to say guys right now as it stands it looks like
it's somewhere less than the 1984 eruption it's still significant it's huge I mean come on this
never happens but the only other thing I would want to watch out for right now well two things
I'd want to watch for an increase up the Peak back where the flow was originally starting with the
big fracture that took place across the center and I would want to watch for outbreaks on the
side you can see where spatter cones form and this happens when a big push comes in from underneath
and if there's a big surge in the magma chamber in the past and just think of any other volcano
that we watched erupt in the past when we watched for instance the Canary Islands last year that was
a pretty significant eruption in its own ride it went on for several months and on the side of the
volcano all sorts of side Vents and flanks formed that looked almost exactly like these Buttes these
small spatter cones that we see placed out around the outside edge of here so it could happen that
way I'm not saying it's going to but you can see where it did happen in the past outbreaks on the
side and then that flows of course down and you get sometimes pretty long flows that go down a
long way on those side flank brakes as opposed to something that comes out the peak the peak of the
Caldera or the peak the crater at the top so let's just keep an eye on it I again I kind of Stand By
it now this is less than 1984. it's significant but the way that it's flowing out is good right
now that's good news so it's flowing out into an area where there's nobody as opposed to flowing
down this side where you get down here and all of a sudden you've got a whole bunch of people
and you can see where we had flows that came out on the side but on both sides
on the North side and on the south side it's Aldous you know 1984 eruption really covered
it in deep deep flows look what they've done I mean people were taking a gamble on this because
the previous flows that you can see that came out on the south side of the volcano
some of them did go down right through here and we get side flank brakes and a side flank breaks and
it goes down and it covers this area where there's a lot of people now I have to remind everybody
that there may be a reason why we're not getting a good live view of the lava flow and why the
professionals might have been dragging their feet a little on showing us what this thing is doing
yes they're telling us but they're kind of and I'm playing it down you have to remember there's
so many tourists here right now so many seasonal visitors that come out for the winter and holiday
season around Christmas time and New Year's and again it's a temperate warm look warmer location
and so people do go there during this time of year and they don't have enough ships they don't have
enough planes to get everybody out of there and you know how tourists freak out so that like they
you know over you know estimate and exaggerate on what they think is going to happen because they're
not from there they don't have anybody telling them other than maybe the news and that's not
always the best and so I'll just say look there's a lot of people there that are not you know
normally from there that seasonal it's tourist season and you don't want everybody to leave
by showing them a lava flow that's coming down the side of the volcano it's not going to even
do anything to anybody right now as it stands it'll be something cool to see so if you're a
tourist there don't leave you're not going to get gassed out with some kind of big gaseous
blast or anything don't worry there's not going to be some big pyroclastic flow that you know
buries you like the town of Pompeii this is this volcano is known for its lava flows that put out
layers and you can see the previous layers of 1984 and 1970s and going back all that's how
it's gotten so big over time it's not going to come bury you in a big lava flow if I was
there I would stay there if I again I'm not getting paid to say this I'm just imagining
that there's going to be people that are like oh should we go should we not stay enjoy it try to
get a helicopter view if they'll have to do the flyovers once they ask things uh around
the area that worries about Asher over man could you imagine what that would like be like to see
even at a distance to even get the glow at night with some camera photos that's historic right
there stay get shots have a good time let me know what you find let me know if it gets any bigger
and man get some video of it will ya you might even be able to pay for your vacation if you live
stream the damn thing because apparently nobody wants to live stream it except for a few channels
if I was there I'd be running a live stream right now now let me remind everybody two weeks ago well
just over two weeks ago we had our big deep 7.0 earthquakes that struck here below Tonga prompted
me to issue that two-week warning which I don't normally do I normally do seven day watch but I
told you guys we're gonna watch 10 days to 14 days well this is like day 17. so we're three
days beyond the watch and now we've reached all the way to Hawaii and I'll say it this is in place
of the 6.0 range earthquake we were looking for to strike at monologue and I warned between Mauna
Loa and Kilauea and that's exactly where this flows pretty much taking place it's coming out
the north side of Mauna law it's going up on the North side of Mauna Loa that's between monologue
and Kilauea kilaueas to the southeast and this flow is going out on the North side anyway we
warned there right there at the foot of Mauna Loa on the east side for a 5.9 earthquake a rare
large earthquake to hit there but then I said it in the video from 16 days ago or whatever
I'm like well there is this thing going on with monologue and they've stopped the hikers from
going up to the top of the mountain and with this new push coming through I don't issue I don't do
volcano forecasting guys just so everybody's clear on this I've got my hands full on trying to get
earthquake forecasting down and uh we're working on that of course and it's been a process publicly
on volcanoes this is now the I want to say it's probably about the 20th time where we're looking
for a significant sized earthquake to strike at a spot that doesn't normally get it much
big earthquake activity and instead we get a very rare eruption I'll give you another
example here right in this open area there's a volcano called catovar Volcano k-a-d-o-v-a-r
I was looking for a rare 8.0 earthquake to strike here upper seven low eight which I maybe only
issue a warning for an eight maybe once or twice a year not often at all for anywhere on the planet
and that week a few days after I issued the warning for right here a volcano that had
not erupted in 2000 years blew its top and just obliterated the island it was catovar volcano
and the media weighed in on it and called it the first unexpected eruption of the year
whatever time of year it was it was like January or something February
I think it was January first unexpected eruption of the year they say and I look at all my viewers
well I talked to all my viewers it was live when all this happened and long story short we got
a huge blast in the spot where we were looking for a big earthquake now that's happened several
times at other locations that's just one glaring example of a volcano that hadn't erupted in 2 000
years so here we are with the largest ubruption in Hawaii I think well maybe not the largest
one of the biggest eruptions in Hawaii in the last 40 years just size-wise monologue
certainly the first eruption at Mauna Loa in 40 years since 1984.
and it's on the last day of the watch or right after the last day of the watch for something
to happen there something significant to happen there seismically speaking but I brought up the
potential of eruption because of the canceling of the hikers up to the top and the already ongoing
seismic Swarm at monologue which brought me right down to the center you can go back and
watch the video already played it twice here on my stream today and it's from two weeks ago
so I'm not bragging again I just have to tell you we talked about it two weeks ago it was based upon
the deep earthquakes and the spread going across the planet after that deep seven what happened
a flurry of earthquake activity that's worth mentioning which I should just quickly show it
to you because I documented most of it over on my YouTube channel and I'm not trying to self-promote
but you'd have to come back and fish through my videos to see this literally nobody's gonna tell
you so let me show you starting two weeks ago seismic overdrive here on the 14th here's where
I'm talking about it then we move forward Europe starts moving Texas gets hit with the largest
earthquake in 100 years 7.0 hundreds of people killed thousands injured in Indonesia devastating
earthquake in Indonesia then a 7.3 hits the next day in Solomon Islands with the tsunami
then we get to just this week then here we are in this week and I'm issuing the warnings watching
out like I'm like here we come here we go it's spreading out across the Pacific West Coast and
California is spreading to California I talk about it spreading and in this video from five days ago
I bring up Hawaii and it being on the last day of the wat the last day of seven day watch
so seven day watch expired and I was talking about it and then now here we are five days after that
it is what it is you can see the increase the increase started with our big deep earthquakes
and then boom boom boom boom boom boom boom up to monologue and that's where we are now
we'll wait and see what happens next have a plan and be prepared don't be scared you can
see the progression now spread out across the plates it's not even Up For Debate you can if
anybody was on the fence about this you can watch the earthquakes follow the arrows on the screen
so I mean the debate should be over at least on whether or not earthquakes progress from region
to region here's an example in the United States this is the last day and a half worth of quakes
it goes oh let me wait for this to refresh just for new viewers who don't know
so we can know the progress of the earthquakes kind of like watching a river flood or a train
go from destination to destination and that's a big change from earthquakes being random
anyway word up and much love to all of you I'm going to save this as a video and we'll get this
out over on YouTube I think everybody deserves to see this update the flow is taking place out the
north side of the volcano it's most likely going to go down into an area that's just nothing but
other lava flows and the chances of it reaching to anywhere that I see that's populated are fairly
slim right now unless like I said never rule out that a side vent can open a flank Fisher that can
crack on the side of the volcano and a new flow goes out in some completely different direction
I mean clearly the volcano's under stress so don't ever rule that out entirely but right now
that's not happening we'll know it we'll know it other people will capture it there's enough people
now watching it I guarantee it that there's you know people all around that have cameras ready
to go if anything else happens on either side of the volcano from where people can see it
okay this is go times seismically speaking this is incredible go time it first time in 40 years this
volcano has gone in for the United States it's a big deal one more time if you're a tourist there
you're planning on going there you got some kind of vacation plan there I'll go with you
I'll go with you yeah you're gonna have to take me and The Duchess because she's not gonna let me
go alone no way and then we got to take the cats so there'll be me Duchess and the cats and next
thing you know no no it's not gonna work you guys just go go and go and have fun if you're gonna go
if anything serious happens you'll hear it from me I will tell you I won't sugarcoat it
if I see anything going on that looks weird I will tell you first thing straight up
okay board up and much love look out for this over on YouTube in just a little bit peace out