hello I stumbled upon the --use secret
negotiation plan in the form of this
slide presented by the chief EU
negotiator at the European Council this
slide is amazing and I want to talk to
you about it
so since the brexit breakup the EU and
the UK have been trying unsuccessfully
to broker a deal and this slide makes it
painfully clear why that has made such
little progress over such a long time
it started with brexit where the UK
voted to leave the European Union now
what that means isn't exactly clear
because the EU has a core Center but it
also has many orbits of relationships so
the EU in the UK needs to figure out
where they were as a couple and the UK
has a list of deal-breakers that at
least at time of recording are
non-negotiable and that's fine everyone
has relationship deal-breakers it would
be unhealthy not to anyway core no more
the EU's next closest relationships are
with Norway Iceland and Liechtenstein as
part of the European Economic Area this
is a kind of EU light they're part of
the unified u economy with the use for
freedoms free movement of goods free
movement of services free movement of
capital and free movement of people so
as an Irish citizen since Ireland is
koryu I could go live in a cabin in
Norway even though they're not core you
because of the free movement of people
and vice versa now for the UK free
movement to people is a huge deal shut
it down deal-breaker this makes an EA
style relationship just impossible so
the next relationship orbital out is
Switzerland who has a unique
relationship with the EU she's not you
core she's also not in the EEA and she
is completely landlocked by EU core
members I mean except for Liechtenstein
so perhaps inevitably despite not being
part of the EU in any way she has over a
hundred bilateral treaties with the EU
integrating their economies which means
that Switzerland has given up complete
regulatory autonomy on goods and
services to facilitate trade this is
also a deal breaker
so with Rowlands treaties grant freedom
of movement deal-breaker and Switzerland
makes significant financial
contributions to the EU deal breaker
these two things are also part of the e
so while Switzerland isn't an EU member
in fact she is basically in practice but
also like the EEA members lacks
representation in the Parliament of EU
core the Switzerland's relationship with
the EU is also not one that the UK wants
to emulate this now moves us to the
outermost orbitals and we get into the
really deep asterisks of European Union
foreign relationships this is stuff like
the European Eastern Partnership and the
deep and comprehensive trade agreements
which sounds like political dirty talk
or the European neighbourhood policy a
lot of the aims of these things is to
bring neighbors more inline with Europe
either with what the EU politely calls
the promotion of human rights or trade
integration but both of these bring up
the final deal breakers for the UK
taking Ukraine as an example while not
remotely in EU member or even close she
has agreed to let the European Court of
Justice have some jurisdictional power
in her borders this is required by the
EU for Ukrainian participation in
Interpol a kind of FBI for the EU that
works on cross-border crime nonetheless
European Court of Justice jurisdiction
does mean giving up some sovereignty on
some issues and that's a deal breaker or
take Turkey who can participate in trade
negotiations under the aegis of the EU
presumably to benefit from the trading
power a large bloc has but this means
Turkey doesn't have complete
independence in matters of trade policy
deal-breaker and so now we've passed the
outermost orbital where a relationship
even means anything and so end up in an
inevitable no deal with the EU and UK's
relationship being just regular
countries to each other in the World
Trade Organization membership of which
is basically every country on Earth so
the progress from EU core out to No Deal
is what this slide is showing why the EU
thinks that path is the only path but
the UK has been saying very loudly she
wants to deal while also saying brexit
means brexit she wants independence but
also wants a relationship that's deeper
and more comprehensive with the EU than
just the cold WTO rules but for the EU
it's impossible to see how to satisfy
those desires contradictory without
triggering the UK safeword which is
probably why this EU negotiation
strategy
slide wasn't a secret but was published
back in December of 2017 by the lead
negotiator in front of the heads of
state because this isn't a secret
strategy it's a clear illustration of
the mechanistic results of all of the
UK's deal-breakers I really do think
this is a pretty amazing infographic in
terms of clarity for a horrific lis
complicated topic which is why I just
had to make this footnote to share it
with you because I could not bear to let
it fade away into my notes as just part
of the background reading anyway that is
why the brexit timeline has been so long
with so little happening the UK has
mutually exclusive once has also
discussed in the main video in a
different area and it's really all down
to the UK she could stick with the
deal-breakers and go it alone or she can
drop some and settle in an orbital
relationship with the EU but she can't
have both I guess we'll see what happens
soon maybe
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