Monica is about to fool herself.
She’s about to believe in a delusion.
And by doing so, she’s about to cause a big problem for herself.
In the middle of the night, at 3:34 AM, Monica notices that her boyfriend’s phone received
a text message from a woman named Jen.
Instantly, Monica starts thinking that her boyfriend, Pat, might be cheating on her,
because she heard a rumour in the past that he wasn’t a very loyal guy.
This one thought takes root in her mind and starts forming others.
He’s probably been cheating on me for awhile, she thinks.
He’s probably done it multiple times.
And who knows what else he’s lying about.
He’s probably a compulsive liar.
She goes on like this for awhile, building a bigger and bigger story about what’s going
on, until finally, in the kitchen the next morning, she confronts him.
“Who is she,” she says.
“What are you talking about,” says Pat.
“That text you got last night.”
“That was from my cousin.
My grandma’s in the hospital.”
And so at this point, because of her false certainty, because of her belief in a delusion,
Monica had made a fool out of herself.
She feels embarrassed.
We can see how quickly one false idea multiplies into more false ideas, leading to a foolish
mistake.
So what could Monica have done to prevent herself from being fooled in the first place?
Monica could have used Rene Descartes’ method of doubt.
Descartes’ method protects us from false certainty.
It’s pretty simple to use, and it goes like this.
To determine if her belief is true, Monica should begin by trying to doubt it.
Now did Monica have any possible reason to doubt that belief?
Sure.
Maybe Jen was just someone from work, a family member, or a friend.
Either way, there were many possible reasons to doubt that belief.
And according to Descartes method of doubt, if there’s any possible reason to doubt
a belief, we reserve our judgment about whether it’s true or not until more evidence comes
out.
So according to this method, we only believe a thing is true if there is no possible reason
to doubt it.
That’s how we prevent false certainty, and that’s how we prevent ourselves from being
fooled.
It’s simple, but incredibly effective once we understand and implement it.
And if Monica used Descartes’ method of doubt, she would have withheld her judgment
about whether Pat was cheating in the first place, because she did have possible reasons
to doubt that that belief was true.
She would never have made herself look like a fool.
So if anything has the possibility of being false, Descartes doesn’t want to mistakenly
assume it’s true.
He wants to stop false ideas from taking root in his mind and multiplying into more false
ideas, because he understands the danger of falling down that rabbit hole.
Now let’s take a look at a second example.
You’re driving towards a green light about to take a left.
You see that another car is driving straight in the opposite direction.
The light turns yellow.
So you have to make a decision: do you slow down and stop, or speed up and make the turn?
The decision you make is going to depend on what you believe and how certain you are.
Let’s analyze this scenario using The Method of Doubt.
You believe that the other driver is going to stop.
Is there any possible reason to doubt this belief?
Definitely.
Drivers frequently speed up and run yellow lights.
So according to The Method of Doubt, we should not be certain about our belief.
So the best course of action is to slow down and stop, because we can’t be certain whether
the other driver will stop or not.
So you slow down and stop.
And what happens?
The other driver speeds through the yellow light.
So thanks to The Method of Doubt, you avoid making a foolish and dangerous mistake.
So how do we make sure we are never fooled?
By never believing something is true if we have any possible reasons to doubt it, which
is known as The Method of Doubt.
And although it’s a very simple method to use, it rarely is used, because most people
have a desire to confirm their beliefs rather than doubt them.
But by using The Method of Doubt, we can better protect ourselves from the false certainty
that leads to foolish and dangerous mistakes.