INTRO: Within just 2 years of launching, this platform
became the world’s largest social media network eventually surpassing over 100 million
users.
Within 3 years, this website become the most visited website in the US surpassing even
Yahoo and Google.
Given this explosive growth, I don’t think you’d be surprised to hear that this platform
was acquired for $580 million within 2 years of being founded.
Hearing this, you might be thinking that I’m describing the roaring success of Instagram,
but this was actually the story of MySpace.
And the part that we have yet to discuss is equally explosive downfall.
In mid 2008, Facebook would surpass MySpace in terms of user count and within the next
5 years, MySpace’s user count would crumble from 115 million to 36 million.
And the worst part was that MySpace would be resold to another buyer for just $35 million.
That’s only 6% of their initial $580 million buyout.
And that’s not that surprising given that virtually no one uses MySpace today.
On the other hand, Instagram never become the world’s largest social media platform.
However, it’s growth was just as explosive as MySpace.
Within 3 years of launching, Instagram boasted an astonishing 100 million users.
And it didn’t take long for Facebook to buyout Instagram for a whopping $1 billion.
But, as we saw with MySpace, rapid adoption doesn't necessarily indicate long term success.
And users can dissipate faster than they came on.
This isn’t to say that Instagram is going to explode in spectacular fashion within the
next couple of years.
But, at the same time, we’re starting to see red flags pop up that indicate that Instagram
may share its final destination with MySpace.
So, here’s the top reasons that Instagram is doomed to become the next MySpace.
YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC: Starting off with the most concrete evidence,
we have Instagram’s user base.
While their overall user count is yet to show any signs of slowing down, something that’s
worrisome is the demographics of this user base specifically their age.
If we take a look at Instagram’s age demographics, we’ll see that only 8% of their user base
is 13-17 year olds.
This means that the number of high schoolers that are using Instagram is equivalent to
the number of 45 to 54 year olds that are using Instagram.
This may not seem like a problem at first glance, but when we take a look at their competitors
demographics, we’ll see just how much Instagram is lacking.
Take Snapchat for example.
13-17 year olds make up just over 20% of their user base while 18-24 year olds make up nearly
40%.
Meanwhile, 50+ year olds make up just 3.7% which is 8 times less than their 13-17 year
old user base.
If we take a look at TikTok, we’ll see a demographic that’s even more skewed towards
younger people.
TikTok’s largest user base is 10-19 year olds who make up a quarter of their user base.
Something else to note is that even though 10-19 year olds are their largest demographic,
TikTok is quite popular amongst other age groups as well.
The reason this is a problem for Instagram is that it’s concrete evidence that they’re
not appealing to newer generations like they used to.
This isn’t to say that teenagers aren’t using social media nowadays.
Social media use amongst amongst teenagers is higher than ever before.
In fact, 97% of 13-17 year olds use social media.
Instagram is simply not their top choice.
Based on the demographic numbers, they far prefer SnapChat and TikTok.
Meanwhile, Instagram’s demographic numbers are starting to look more and more like Facebook’s.
Facebook is extremely unpopular amongst 13-17 year olds.
In fact, there’s more 55-64 year olds that use Facebook than 13-17 year olds.
Even the 65+ demographic is comparable to 13-17 year olds at Facebook.
Now, there are some benefits that come with an aging demographic.
First of all, your user base actually has money to spend meaning that you can charge
advertisers a much higher amount.
And secondly, you probably wont have stupid trends go viral on your platform like devious
licks.
But, that’s pretty much where the benefits end.
As people get older, they tend to spend less time on social media not only because they
have more responsibilities, but also because they no longer feel the need to live for the
gram.
They tend to prioritize family, kids, and close friends over keeping up some sort of
online persona.
While this is probably a good choice for them, this is a terrible choice for social media
platforms.
Your user base slowly evolves from teenagers and young adults who spend 3-4 hours per day
on your platform to middle aged people who check in once every few days or weeks.
I don’t think I need to explain why this is terrible for business.
And unless Instagram starts to get newer generations onboard, this is where they’re eventually
headed.
FADING ORIGINALITY: Aside from lack luster performance amongst
Gen Z, Instagram has devolved into becoming copycats.
At first, Instagram’s parent company, Meta, tried to acquire their way to the top.
They spent ludicrous amounts on acquisitions like Instagram and WhatsApp.
But, not every business owner can be persuaded to sell by just money.
For example, Facebook offered $3 billion in cash to takeover SnapChat way back in 2013,
but SnapChat’s CEO Evan Spiegel refused.
And when Meta realized they couldn’t acquire every company they liked, they just started
ripping off every company they liked.
We saw Instagram introduce stories which were awfully similar to Snapchat stories.
We also saw Instagram launch Reels which were basically a ripoff of TikTok.
Now, we can’t give Instagram too much heat because basically every social media platform
has resorted to doing this.
I mean, just take a look at YouTube stories and shorts.
The problem with this, however, is that such shameless copying leaves these platforms with
no originality as they all basically become the same thing.
Not to mention none of these copied features are all that great at attracting new users.
They may attract new creators who are looking to leverage the low competition, but it rarely
attracts new users.
I mean, if you don’t have TikTok or Instagram and you want to watch short form videos, why
would you download Instagram over TikTok especially when they’re both free?
It doesn't make any sense.
Instagram’s demographic numbers prove this without a shadow of doubt.
Meta and YouTube are well aware of this too, and they’re not trying to attract new users
with such features per se.
Rather, they’re trying to preserve their existing base and minimize losses in watch
time.
But, as they spend so much time on copying features and preserving watch time, they often
forget about what appealed to users in the first place.
This is especially a problem with Instagram because their user base has already started
to turn on them.
And I’m not talking about Meta’s privacy concerns or political involvement.
I’m talking about people who are turning on Instagram because the platform is toxic
to their mental health.
It’s no secret that Instagram is filled with over the top photos.
Instagram has transitioned from being a place where you share your life with your friends
to being a place where you share your highlights with people you know to being a place where
you share doctored photos to impress strangers.
Instagram users are more aware of this than ever before which has completely warped their
perception of the platform.
And I think this is what Meta should have spent their focus.
They should have spent time encouraging originality and authenticity which is what attracted users
to their platform in the first place.
But, instead they were busy copying features from TikTok and SnapChat.
And as Instagram slowly morphs into being just another social media platform, it’ll
just become even harder for them to appeal to younger generations.
THE TIKTOK PHENOMENON: By this point, it’s no secret that one of
the main factors that’s causing all social media companies to squirm is TikTok.
TikTok has taken the world by storm and though many like to criticize it, TikTok was still
the most visited website in 2021.
And given that people only have 24 hours in a day, all this traffic has to come from somewhere.
And more times that not, that somewhere is other social media platforms such as Instagram
and YouTube.
And looking forward, it doesn’t seem like TikTok’s dominance is going to stop anytime
soon.
Over the years, our attention spans have only gotten smaller and smaller.
First, people switched from traditional media like movies and TV shows to shorter form online
content like YouTube videos.
And now, we’re seeing them switch from YouTube videos to TikTok shorts.
This isn’t to say that other forms of media will be left behind completely.
But, as TikTok continues its dominance, it’s likely that other platforms will just continue
to bleed, but honestly this isn’t anything new within the social media space.
Since the creation of social media in the late 1990s, users have flocked from one platform
to the next.
First there was Friendster.
Then there was Myspace and after that, we saw Facebook and Twitter.
At this point, people switched from computers to smartphones and we saw the rise of Instagram
and WhatsApp.
And then, we saw SnapChat and now we have TikTok.
None of these platforms stayed at the top for more than a few years, and they were completely
abandoned within a few decades.
Given that Instagram was launched in 2010, it’s been nearly 12 years since the platform
was launched.
So, it’s not surprising that Instagram is approaching it’s peak form if it’s not
already there.
Something else to note is that Meta themselves have more or less just accepted this fate.
10 years ago, they were vigorously trying to acquire the next big platform in order
to always stay on top, but it seems like Mark Zuckerberg has come to the realization that
this simply unsustainable.
As a result, he’s been shifting the company’s focus into VR and the metaverse.
I mean, he even changed the company’s name from Facebook to Meta which is something you
never want to do for branding reasons.
Mark is basically all in on the Metaverse and he’s even been telling shareholders
to brace for significant losses due to the Metaverse over the next 5 years.
Last year alone, Meta spent $10 billion on the Metaverse and given Mark’s stance, I
don’t think this will be changing anytime soon.
So, even if Instagram isn’t completely consumed by newer social media players, it looks like
Instagram will eventually be left behind by Meta themselves.
THE STATE OF INSTAGRAM: In the end, Instagram is extremely nostalgic
to many of us because we grew up with it.
We used it all throughout middle school, high school, and college.
And as young adults, many of us still use it on a regular basis.
So, it might be hard to imagine this massive platform slowly wither away.
But the thing to keep in mind is that all popular social media platforms crossed this
same stage.
MySpace and Friendster were extremely nostalgic to a specific generation as well.
But, that didn’t stop these platforms from eventually going down.
15 years ago, it probably seemed impossible for something like MySpace to die, yet here
we are.
And as Instagram continues to lose its originality and Meta shifts their focus onto new projects,
it just becomes more and more likely that new generations abandon Instagram.
We’re already starting to see this amongst 13-17 year olds, but this will simply become
even more blatant in the next 10-15 years as these guys grow up.
And soon enough people will be talking about Instagram like we talk about MySpace and Friendster
today.
But, that’s just what I think.
Do you think Instagram will break the trend and survive for decades?
Comment that down below.
Also, drop a like if Instagram is nostalgic for you.
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