In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the form
of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned only
with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Juventus, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
Juventus thought that bringing back Max Allegri would be a quick fix:
Allegri knows the club and has brought success before.
But Juve are still underperforming. Allegri seems to have settled on a 4-3-3,
despite experimenting with a variety of systems. Juventus want to dominate the ball,
use the wings to generate chances, and if not exactly press high,
at least force the opposition backwards and maintain constant pressure.
This season, more than anything, Juventus are struggling to get the ball into the box
with enough regularity and quality and, as a result,
they’re generating fewer chances and shots than the other good sides in Serie A. Juventus are
strangely off the pace on a number of key metrics with 21 games played in the league.
They are heavily reliant on Alex Sandro and Juan Cuadrado to get the ball into the area:
the two account for just over a quarter of all Juve’s successful passes into the box.
Meanwhile, the hugely talented but injury-prone Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata,
who is keen to leave for Barcelona, account for a massive 40% of the team’s shots on target.
Both these metrics need to be shared around more, as well as improved for the team as a whole,
and the need for fresh recruits is now even more urgent in light of Federico Chiesa’s injury.
It is clear, then, that Juventus’ main target needs to be a reliable,
goal-scoring centre forward. High shot volume is helpful, as well as conversion rate,
while someone young, Italian or Serie A-based would be ideal.
An outside shout from abroad is Taiwo Awoniyi of Union Berlin. A lively all-round striker,
he has relatively good shot volume and nice link-up play in a functional Union side. At 24,
he’s approaching his peak but has shown enough in the Bundesliga to make the step up.
The obvious choice, though, is Sassuolo’s Gianluca Scamacca. It’s no surprise that Juventus have been
linked to the striker because he fits Juventus’ profile well. He’s young, Italian, and plays for a
club with whom Juventus have a good relationship. Manuel Locatelli is the most recent successful
transfer between the two, while left-back Rogerio is apparently of interest to Juventus also.
Scamacca is a player we really like, so much so we also mentioned him in the Arsenal Sensible
Transfers video. But this feels like an even more obvious move for club and player.
He’s tall, physical, and yet sufficiently technically to be a composed finisher.
He can produce moments of skill that bely his physicality, and he has shown consistent
improvement as a footballer as he’s adapted to the rigours of robust Italian defending.
A proper number 9, who takes a lot of shots and mostly from good central areas, Scamacca would
immediately boost Juventus’ attacking metrics and could dovetail neatly with Dybala, who could sit
behind him as a second striker. While Sassuolo will not wish to part with such a prize asset,
if Juventus are all in, as they should be, this is a deal that can and should be done.
While Allegri likes his teams to attack with width,
there’s no doubt that the creative burden on Cuadrado and Sandro limits their options
against low blocks. A Nicolo Barella style of mezzala, one who can feed the forwards
and also break into the box from a flanking central midfield role, makes a lot of sense.
A homegrown option is Guilio Maggiore of Spezia, an Italian youth international who
has risen from Serie B with his club and operates on the right of a midfield three.
He has low pass volume numbers, but that’s a reflection of the team’s tactics;
where he stands out is his ability to get into the box and create.
Our pick, though, is Lens’ Seko Fofana. Ligue 1 has a lot of dynamic, progressive central
midfielders – Arsenal’s Matteo Guendouzi, on loan at Marseille, is another worth considering.
But Fofana has been arguably the best of the lot this season, propelling Lens to a higher
table position than anyone might have expected. He gets the ball into the box, carries superbly,
and weighs in with excellent expected goals and assists numbers for a central midfielder.
His defensive numbers are low, but that wouldn’t be his job at Juventus.
What he would do is drive forwards, get the ball into dangerous areas,
while maintaining the shape and solidity of a midfield three or a double pivot. Lens and Fofana
started the season below the radar, but that’s definitely not the case now.
Lastly, while Juventus have actually defended really well this season,
with the third lowest expected goals against so far, they need fresh blood in that department.
Selling Cristian Romero and Merih Demiral seems odd with Leonardo Bonucci’s recent injury issues
and Giorgio Chiellini’s advancing years, while Mino Raiola has suggested that Matthias de Ligt
may wish to seek a new challenge elsewhere, having failed to convince so far in black and white.
While he would be a gamble, Rijeka’s Hrvoje Smolcic looks to be a very
promising left-footed centre back. He’s made almost 80 first team appearances,
including in European competition, and is only 21; he’s also a Croatian under-21 international.
An elegant passer who can play left back and shows a desire to carry or make runs in behind
or on the overlap, he’s a very promising, modern defender who will move to a bigger side.
Our choice, though, is Federico Gatti of Frosinone, highlighted by The Athletic’s James
Horncastle as a Juventus target and described by him as “the revelation of this year’s Serie B”.
Juventus like recruiting Italian centre backs and building a team from that foundation, and Gatti,
23 years old, is at a crucial point in his career. He’s experienced enough to make the leap,
but still has his best years ahead of him. He’s a mobile, front foot defender who likes moving
forwards to seize on loose balls and stepping out to make interceptions. He’s good enough in the air
and also shows a decent range of progressive passing. He is right-footed, which makes him
less of a replacement for Chiellini on that side of the defence, but ticks every other box for
Juventus and unlike many other talented centre backs of his profile, would not cost the earth.